Bitcoin analyst mulls timing of 2024 “pre-halving retrace”
Bitcoin has remained confined within a narrow trading range for over a week, with the $52,000 level serving as a notable resistance zone. While this consolidation phase has dampened sentiment and impacted the performance of alternative cryptocurrencies, experienced market analysts maintain a positive outlook.
Drawing insights from historical patterns leading to previous all-time highs, Rekt Capital highlighted several key phases common to bull market setups. These include a break in the macro downtrend preceding the halving, followed by a pre-halving retracement, a post-halving reaccumulation period, and ultimately, a surge in prices towards new highs.
However, in the current market scenario, one crucial phase seems to be missing—the pre-halving retrace. While Bitcoin managed to break its initial downward trend line, it encountered resistance from a zone previously established by this trend line. The absence of a clear break above this resistance level and subsequent retest as support—a characteristic of the pre-halving retrace phase—raises questions about the market’s trajectory in 2024.
Rekt Capital points out that the critical price level to watch for during the pre-halving pullback is around $45,000. The uncertainty lies in whether Bitcoin will retest this resistance zone during the current pre-halving period—a phenomenon not observed in previous cycles leading up to the halving event.
Moreover, Rekt Capital suggests that key price events may unfold at an accelerated pace in the current market cycle compared to previous ones. This observation indicates that significant market developments, particularly those related to Bitcoin’s price movement, could occur more rapidly in the lead-up to the halving event.
Sub-$50,000 BTC price levels come into focus
Reflecting on the current price movements, some market observers remain unconvinced about adopting a bearish stance amidst the ongoing sideways trading.
Caleb Franzen, the founder of research platform Cubic Analytics, emphasized the consistent price levels of Bitcoin over the past week. Despite fluctuations within the range of $50.6k to $53k, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively stable position, with the lowest daily close hovering around $51.6k. Franzen expressed puzzlement over the prevailing panic in the market, questioning the rationale behind bearish sentiments given the lack of significant price movement.
Similarly, analyst Matthew Hyland echoed Franzen’s sentiments, highlighting the importance of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, situated just above $48,000. While acknowledging the potential shift in market dynamics if Bitcoin were to breach the $49k level, Hyland emphasized that consolidation within an uptrend typically indicates a continuation of the upward trajectory. Despite cautioning against complacency, Hyland’s analysis suggests a favorable outlook for Bitcoin’s price trend amid the ongoing consolidation phase.
